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once again
Posted by jeff in MD

(# 688) (more from jeff in MD) on Thu, 15 Dec 2011 09:47:03
In Reply to: Re: Even a test like that assumes, Reality, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 09:34:21

You've made a bunch of good and thought provoking points but then closed with a critical error. You give two possibilities (the only two, as you state it's "prima facie proof") for the coinciding decrease in auto accident deaths with presumed increase in in-car cell phone use - 1. The use of cell phone is positive to driving safety, even if the exact mechanism may be beyond your comprehension; 2. The negative impact of cell phone use on driving is insignificant to negligible.

A 3rd possibility is that the negative impact of cell phone use is overwhelmed by the positive impact of other things that have been happening at the same time - older vehicles being replaced with new ones, more seat belt use, less drunk driving, slowing increase (or slight decrease) in miles driven, teen driver restrictions, etc.

I don't know what the reality is but without more study & evidence we can't be too restrictive with the possible explanations.

jeff

posted by 138.162....

Posts in this Thread:

Cellphones and driving, Noel , Wed, 14 Dec 2011 06:28:12
- Re: Cellphones and driving, Craig, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 10:40:55
  - Re: Cellphones and driving, Justin VanAbrahams, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 15:32:40
    - Then ban all cops and military pilots, Reality, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 22:10:55
      - Ever drive with a cop?, nwas, Sun, 18 Dec 2011 09:47:20
        Where do you think the military pilots get their, Reality, Sun, 18 Dec 2011 14:36:09
        Well, some of it anyway..., Noel , Mon, 19 Dec 2011 12:36:29
        Agree! I've seen cops do stuff that'd get, Noel , Sun, 18 Dec 2011 11:40:39
      - Not too impressed cops/pilots - but speaking of Greek, AeroBaron, Fri, 16 Dec 2011 10:46:03
        The guy should be banned!, Reality, Fri, 16 Dec 2011 11:37:53
        Yep on nanny, and su stuff es mi stuff NM, AeroBaron, Fri, 16 Dec 2011 11:55:55
      - I hold a radiotelephone operator's license, JohnA , Fri, 16 Dec 2011 10:43:48
        Do you honestly believe that a summer job skill set, Reality, Fri, 16 Dec 2011 11:42:54
        truck drivers/taxi drivers etc don't need licensing, JohnA , Fri, 16 Dec 2011 14:56:30
        Re: truck drivers/taxi drivers etc don't need licensing, Reality, Sat, 17 Dec 2011 07:09:06
        use of cellphone, JohnA , Sat, 17 Dec 2011 15:36:50
        Gullible fools still needed in the Jury box, Reality, Sun, 18 Dec 2011 13:56:54
- Here's a Study with N > 100,000,000, Reality, Wed, 14 Dec 2011 18:50:54
  - Dewey wins!, nwas, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 20:02:52
    - That's the exact position of the wannabe Nannies, Reality, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 22:18:56
      - Wrong, nwas, Fri, 16 Dec 2011 09:05:36
        Yes, You Are Wrong!, Reality, Fri, 16 Dec 2011 09:36:25
        Missing the point...., plap, Fri, 16 Dec 2011 11:43:21
        Yes, You Are Missing the Point, Reality, Fri, 16 Dec 2011 12:05:02
        Sorry, but you're still missing the point, nwas, Fri, 16 Dec 2011 15:06:31
        You have no legal right to be protected from anything, Reality, Fri, 16 Dec 2011 20:50:30
        Stop arguing for the sake of arguing!, Noel , Fri, 16 Dec 2011 11:04:39
        Very good additional points, Reality, Fri, 16 Dec 2011 11:25:56
        Yawn, nwas, Fri, 16 Dec 2011 15:12:46
        Now you are speaking the truth, Reality, Fri, 16 Dec 2011 20:39:50
  - or maybe cars have gotten safer in the past decade, or, AeroEd , Wed, 14 Dec 2011 19:21:35
    - Don't ban those movies, Reality, Wed, 14 Dec 2011 20:11:46
      - Correlation does not imply causation, AdamB , Thu, 15 Dec 2011 02:38:42
        Re: Correlation does not imply causation, Reality, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 05:54:29
        Re: Correlation does not imply causation, AdamB , Thu, 15 Dec 2011 14:22:31
        Re: Correlation does not imply causation, Reality, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 22:41:43
        automotive safety..., James, Fri, 16 Dec 2011 03:54:21
        IIHS has been in business since 1959!, Reality, Fri, 16 Dec 2011 05:37:52
        Re: IIHS has been in business since 1959!, James, Fri, 16 Dec 2011 08:17:42
        Side tracking aside, you have it backwards again, Reality, Fri, 16 Dec 2011 09:20:31
        Re: Side tracking aside, you have it backwards again, James, Fri, 16 Dec 2011 13:22:37
        Re: Side tracking aside, you have it backwards again, Reality, Fri, 16 Dec 2011 20:31:00
        Re: Side tracking aside, you have it backwards again, James, Sat, 17 Dec 2011 06:02:55
        Re: Side tracking aside, you have it backwards again, Reality, Sat, 17 Dec 2011 07:33:57
        Re: Side tracking aside, you have it backwards again, James, Sat, 17 Dec 2011 10:44:56
        Please do not mischaracterise my POV, Reality, Sat, 17 Dec 2011 21:44:42
        I apologize..., James, Sun, 18 Dec 2011 07:35:34
        Re: I apologize..., Reality, Sun, 18 Dec 2011 14:48:37
        Accident fatalities, Noel , Sun, 18 Dec 2011 05:18:25
        Re: Accident fatalities, Reality, Sun, 18 Dec 2011 14:56:36
        Re: Correlation does not imply causation, TML, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 06:05:11
        One more important assumption, Reality, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 07:14:47
        Re: One more important assumption, TML, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 08:04:22
        Re: One more important assumption, Reality, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 09:13:33
        Even a test like that assumes, Reality, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 07:07:28
        Re: Even a test like that assumes, TML, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 07:54:58
        Re: Even a test like that assumes, Reality, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 09:34:21
        once again, jeff in MD , Thu, 15 Dec 2011 09:47:03
        File that 3rd possiblity under "insigificant", Reality, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 09:58:52
        Re: File that 3rd possiblity under "insigificant", James, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 10:43:34
        Do you honestly believe, Reality, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 11:03:12
        Re: Do you honestly believe, James, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 11:17:14
        Re: Even a test like that assumes, James, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 08:12:08
        Thanks for pointing out Adeptation/Adaptation, Reality, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 09:47:39
        study link, jeff in MD , Thu, 15 Dec 2011 08:16:54
        another link, James, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 08:37:26
        Re: Even a test like that assumes, jeff in MD , Thu, 15 Dec 2011 07:31:12
        Agree, Reality, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 09:53:20
        I'm not conviced there was a study to begin with, Noel , Thu, 15 Dec 2011 08:21:20
        need to do research, jeff in MD , Thu, 15 Dec 2011 08:24:46
        They all have the wrong assumption, Reality, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 10:20:32
        Re: They all have the wrong assumption, James, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 10:50:11
        Re: They all have the wrong assumption, Reality, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 11:20:07
        Re: They all have the wrong assumption, James, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 11:28:58
        Re: They all have the wrong assumption, Reality, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 22:03:24
        Cell phones not the only distraction!, Noel , Thu, 15 Dec 2011 10:37:07
        Exactly! What will they ban next?, Reality, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 10:50:45
        I kind of agree with you..., James, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 11:02:20
        Re: I kind of agree with you..., Reality, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 22:27:25
        Re: I kind of agree with you..., James, Fri, 16 Dec 2011 04:06:54
        "It's not the end of the world", Reality, Fri, 16 Dec 2011 05:48:17
        I don't disagree..., James, Fri, 16 Dec 2011 08:36:07
        By that logic, Reality, Fri, 16 Dec 2011 09:51:31
        Re: Cell phones not the only distraction!, jeff in MD , Thu, 15 Dec 2011 10:47:56
        Texting probably the worst thing..., Noel , Thu, 15 Dec 2011 11:36:27
        round and around, jeff in MD , Thu, 15 Dec 2011 11:43:31
        Re: round and around, Noel , Fri, 16 Dec 2011 06:53:54
        Re: round and around, Real, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 22:23:17
        dialing!, James, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 10:55:37
        Voice Dialing and Voice to Text, Reality, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 11:10:25
- doesn't matter anyway, ryan, Wed, 14 Dec 2011 12:42:45
  - Texting while driving up 50 per cent in U.S., JohnA , Wed, 14 Dec 2011 13:01:15
    - Yet vehicular fatality did not increase, Reality, Wed, 14 Dec 2011 18:55:46
      - BTW, I don't smoke at all, Reality, Wed, 14 Dec 2011 19:01:47
        Re: BTW, I don't smoke at all, Ultimated , Thu, 15 Dec 2011 04:59:56
        Re: BTW, I don't smoke at all, Reality, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 05:57:59
    - keep me AWAY from these people! n/m, JohnA , Wed, 14 Dec 2011 13:01:53
- Re: Cellphones and driving, JohnA , Wed, 14 Dec 2011 06:36:40
  - Re: Cellphones and driving, JerseySaab , Wed, 14 Dec 2011 07:48:41
    - I suspect the research is less than accurate., Noel , Wed, 14 Dec 2011 10:16:47
      - Re: I suspect the research is less than accurate., Judge Edo, Wed, 14 Dec 2011 17:56:22
      - Re: I suspect the research is less than accurate., Simon S, Wed, 14 Dec 2011 14:46:13
      - The truth - do your own test, nwas, Wed, 14 Dec 2011 13:15:28
        Exactly the opposite for me, Reality, Wed, 14 Dec 2011 21:06:33
        maybe you're a "supertasker"..., James, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 08:28:56
        Hey, stop inflating my ego :-), Reality, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 10:27:29
        Re: Exactly the opposite for me, James, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 08:24:13
      - Re: I suspect the research is less than accurate., JerseySaab , Wed, 14 Dec 2011 10:36:11
        Re: I suspect the research is less than accurate., JohnA , Wed, 14 Dec 2011 12:39:06
        Re: I suspect the research is less than accurate., JerseySaab , Wed, 14 Dec 2011 15:31:03
        Re: I suspect the research is less than accurate., JohnA , Wed, 14 Dec 2011 17:45:45
    - Re: Cellphones and driving, JohnA , Wed, 14 Dec 2011 07:56:05
      - Re: Cellphones and driving, JerseySaab , Wed, 14 Dec 2011 07:57:39
        Re: Cellphones and driving, Erik919kt , Wed, 14 Dec 2011 08:56:46
        Re: Cellphones and driving, TML, Wed, 14 Dec 2011 08:33:06
        Re: Cellphones and driving, JerseySaab , Wed, 14 Dec 2011 09:46:24

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