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actual prices - vary
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Posted by Ari [Email] (#2847) [Profile/Gallery] (more from Ari) on Tue, 7 Sep 2004 10:17:28 Share Post by Email
In Reply to: A very articulate response, Dennis, Tue, 7 Sep 2004 08:38:02
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Are you looking to get the best possible deal, or trying to gauge the market to see 'what they're going for?' Of course, we all want the best possible price.

Since dealer/buyer transactions are private, I don't expect you'll find actual prices. I try and gauge the market a few ways-

First, see what they're asking. Because of Internet sales, many dealers are cutting their asking prices, in order to get folks in. If they ask too much, folks will just pass them over. However, that doesn't mean it's the lowest price.

In my area (CT), I'm seeing around 19.9K for '01 sedans, about $1500-$2000 more for wagons. However, there is a decent variation there. Maybe 19K for one, 22.5K for another. Condition is big. One local dealer has a huge stock of cars, and they're consistently around $1K lower than other places. First, they've got a lot of stock. But I've found the condition of the cars to be pretty low - scratches and worn leather, smoke at startup, missing bits. The more expensive places tend to have nicer cars. Not a guarantee, but that's the tendancy. SOme places have had high prices and poor quality.

My guess is that since the prices are pretty well clustered, I think there is probably $500 to $1000 in terms of 'play.' That will probably depend on specific condition, like wear on the tires and such. Mileage is big, as is In-Service Date. That's a biggie for me. The CPO warranty is six years from In-Service. If a car has 12 months left on the existing warranty, you've got 3 years of warranty left. If there is only 1 month left on the original, you've got 25 months of warranty left. That's worth money. Not a lot, but a few hundred bucks, depending on what it's worth to you.

You can also check the private market. Those cars won't have a CPO warranty, which is probably worth around $2K or so. See what folks are asking, and assume those are a little high.

Edmunds and Kelly are nice guides, but far too many folks that that as gospel. Cars sell for what cars sell for. If a dealer isn't able to keep cars on his lot, then he's probably getting near what he's asking. If he's discounting to clear out those cars, then if everybody else is getting those prices, you should, too.

If cars are sitting on the lot, then one of two things - either he's asking too much and he's willing to deal, or he's asking too much and he's not willing to deal. Nothing you can do about the last case - and in the first case, all of the previous answers apply.

Again, you're trying very hard to figure out what everybody else paid. I don't recommend that. From surveying the market, you should be able to figure out what the average, high and low of asking prices are. See a few dealers, and see a few cars to figure price versus condition, and decide on a condition and price you think is good. Then start low.

My guess is that if dealers are regularly ASKING 19.9K, cars are probably selling for $19.0 or maybe, maybe 18.5K. I doubt they're going out the door (CPO from a dealer, good shape) for $15K.

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