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Goldberger's Rule of Thumb
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Posted by Stephen Goldberger (more from Stephen Goldberger) on Wed, 12 Feb 2003 11:22:05 Share Post by Email
In Reply to: Please help on price. Not an add., Brian, Wed, 12 Feb 2003 08:29:38
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This is designed to give a "good price for the buyer" and is generally pretty accurate for cars in the 2-8 year old range, for cars of "average condition."

50% discount from new list price of the nearest equivalent new Saab for every three years. This is a logorithmic scale - take your calculator and press 0.5 (exponent) N where N is the age (7 in your case). Multiply the result by the new list price.

When dealing with 9000 Aero models, it's more accurate (in my experience - not buying and selling, but just watching the prices) to calculate for a "year newer CSE" (which is very good for the math - your 1996 Aero converts to a 1997 CSE, and the resulting depreciation factor is 0.25). The new car most equivalent to a '97 CSE, IMO, would be a 50/50 split between the Linear and Arc wagon - the CSE has the power of the Arc, but lacks the sucking seats and standard a/t.

Finally, you need to adjust the result based on miles and condition. I like to use 0.10 per mile, and in your case, 6 years at 15K per year gives 90,000 miles. You'd need to adjust the rule of thumb price down by $1600.

New list price for Arc (metallic) is 39825. For Linear, 35170 (from the SCUSA web site). Run the calculation, and you get a smidgen under $8,000. Now you get to add back according to condition, which you feel is above average.

At this point, it's up to you as the seller to make the case for the price you want to receive. In my experience, the greatest asset in selling a car is mental - if deep down inside you really don't want to sell it, you *will* get the asking price offerred to you. OTOH, if you're desperate to dump the car for whatever reason, you'll never get a decent offer. Can't explain it, but there it is...

IMPORTANT NOTE: a documented good maintenance history can be a very big plus on a 7 year old 9000. Frequent coolant service will delay or prevent a heater core replacement - a $1000 job. Frequent and meticulous oil service will delay or prevent a timing chain job - a $3000 job. One can inspect for clutch wear - a lot of lining left on the clutch is a plus for a 105,000 mile car - clutch replacement is one of the factors in the "rule of thumb". etc.

posted by 24.166.10...


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