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People have been throwing this statistic around as justification for Saab getting into the SUV market. Without getting into whether Saab should have an SUV (it's been discussed before and will be again, but that's not my intent in this thread), I'd like to think about the statistic for a minute.

The problem is that according to R.L. Polk, in 2001, exactly 24% of new cars sold in the US were SUVs. Which means that Saab owners who leave Saab are not leaving disproportionately for an SUV. In fact, it suggests the opposite. Given a pool of people leaving Saab, you could break them into two groups: those who don't necessarily want a new Saab, and those who would like a Saab but feel they need an SUV. You would expect 24% of the first group to buy an SUV, and 100% of the second group to buy an SUV. Therefore, the total number who leave Saab for an SUV would be greater than 24%. The fact that it is only 24% means that more than 76% of the people who leave Saab do so because they don't like Saab's newest cars.

Of course, you could argue that the first group above, being previous car owners, aren't a representative sample and likely fewer than 24% of them will buy an SUV. Which just means that the statistic in the subject of this post is completely useless for any understanding of the market.

Matt
'99 9³

posted by 12.101.2...

• 24% of those that leave Saab go for an SUV, MO, Tue, 9 Sep 2003 16:37:56 <-- Viewing This Message
  • just to clarify..., MO, Wed, 10 Sep 2003 08:29:49
  • My guess is closer to 20% N/M, Atul, Wed, 10 Sep 2003 08:14:27
  • Re: 24% of those that leave Saab go for an SUV, compaqted, Wed, 10 Sep 2003 06:29:30
    • RL Polk actually collects data on car, Price, Wed, 10 Sep 2003 10:02:19
  • you're playing dangerously with those numbers, Aero'ed, Tue, 9 Sep 2003 19:58:52
    • beyond dangerous, gorper, Wed, 10 Sep 2003 01:27:43
      • As Mark Twain said, "There are lies, damn lies and..., Noel, Wed, 10 Sep 2003 06:24:29
  • By 2005 50pc market share in BC, Canada, Paul , Tue, 9 Sep 2003 17:21:40
    • Give some alternative to X5, XC90, ML430 etc ......, SaabKen in Vancouver, Tue, 9 Sep 2003 20:22:54
  • Thoughtful analysis. n/m, saw, Tue, 9 Sep 2003 17:04:00
    • How many leave b/c they had NG900; about 50% (-), Jon906, Tue, 9 Sep 2003 19:29:15

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