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Industry Report: Is Saab really dying?
http://car-reviews.automobile.com/news/industry-report-is-saab-really-dying/1493/
Are New Models the Answer to Saabs Difficulties?
Over the past few weeks there have been countless headlines in car magazines and newspapers across the globe stating that Saab is doomed, and for good reason. Lacking a clean bill of health due to ever-sliding sales, hampered by a miniscule product lineup and extremely strong competition, it looks as if Saab has little more than a dim future. To make matters worse, with the unexpected sale of General Motors share in Fuji Heavy Industries, which builds Subaru, Saabs recent platform partner, to Toyota, it has been suggested that Saabs eleventh hour may be at hand.
A quick recap is necessary to grasp an understanding of the issues that Saab has been facing. While its true that pointing fingers after the fact isnt always fair, plans made by upper management with respect to the brand dont seem all that bright. Saabs range in North America recently doubled, encompassing for the first time a Japanese-built, all-wheel drive wagon powered by a horizontally-opposed engine, the 9-2X derived from Subarus extremely capable Impreza, and a durable, if not truck-like SUV called the 9-7x, pulled from GMs GMT360 midsize sport utility architecture that underpins the Chevy Trailblazer, GMC Envoy, and others. Either way, despite attempts to cover up these products with vaguely familiar front end treatments and a floor-mounted key, for the latter, theres no mistaking that these arent real Saabs.
But problems exist at a deeper level. The Swedish-engineered Saabs (9-3 and 9-5) currently in production are dating rapidly. The 9-5, introduced in face-lifted form at the Frankfurt auto show in September, is bordering a decade in age under the skin, and the Epsilon-chassis based 9-3 is already starting to sag around its edges in light of newer, sharper competitors, even with its powerful new Holden (GM of Australia) twin-turbo V6. A replacement for the large Saab wont arrive for another few years, given GMs questionable decision to pay Italian partner Fiat off (or more correctly the poor deal that was struck with Fiat in the first place, that forced GMs hand). Fiat, now some billions of dollars richer, also walked off with what has been claimed by several magazines to be the finest front-wheel drive platform in existence; a variable wheelbase, all-wheel drive capable platform which was supposed to be shared with Saab. Hmmm...
As of earlier this year, analysts had created a lovely flowchart which depicted Saabs return to its former glory days. It included the development of a large crossover vehicle called the 9-6X, which was to be based off the Subaru B9 Tribeca, the Japanese firms first real sport ute.
The next generation Impreza would have ensured some kind of stake into the compact sports sedan market, and an all-new model would allow for greater distinction between the Subaru and Saab cousins, however, with split ties between GM and Subaru, its unlikely to happen. As for the 9-6X, this vehicle will probably never appear given Toyotas decision to disallow the Subaru-GM partnership to continue. This, all in spite of the fact that a prototype of the 9-6X was nearly complete at the time of the switchover.
With tides changing so quickly and current projects headed for the dustbin, what can we expect from the crowned Griffin, if anything at all? First up, Saab fans fear not. The brand will live on, at least for another three or four years (ignoring rumors in which Saab would be sold to Hyundai or some other profit-making firm from the Far East).
You can thank General Motors directly for this and their decision to "re-launch" Cadillac in Europe. At this years Frankfurt show, Caddy displayed the production version of its BLS compact luxury sedan, the vehicle which takes sensible Saab engineering and pairs it with Cadillacs "Art & Science" styling. At any rate, the BLS will be produced at the 9-3 plant in Sweden, keeping that arm healthy until the end of its product cycle in 09. There have been rumors that the BLS range may be pumped up to include convertible and wagon versions, crafted from the Cabriolet and SportCombi models, respectively.
And now for some fun stuff: diving head-first into speculation. Like any luxury or near-luxury brand, such as Alfa Romeo or Audi, Saab needs a modern, current lineup of products to adapt to this highly competitive market. Two such segments for which Saab is reportedly aiming, is the smaller, more compact cars and crossovers which sell for less money - something which Saab needs for volume and for cash. Its probably worth noting at this point, that Saabs interests are also in line with those of Cadillacs in Europe, where buyers are requesting fresher, more European-friendly (smaller and diesel-powered) products.
Along the lines of its X all wheel drive branding, the potential answer to Saabs financial problems is the 9-4X. As insiders have suggested, it would be a compact SUV built up from the Epsilon architecture, or more specifically, the 9-3s platform. With production of the 9-5 slated to move from Sweden to Opels HQ in Russelsheim, Germany, this would free up space on the Trollhattan assembly facility to produce it, and its Cadillac equal, the BLX. This solution is popular with Saab; giving the Trollhattan plant enough of a production schedule to avoid closure. Keep in mind, Opel still needs a replacement for the now defunct Frontera (old Isuzu Rodeo), and this could be the solution although the current platform for the Saturn VUE/Chevrolet Equinox could be adapted to hasten progress.
Interestingly, the 9-4X is the most likely new vehicle to see the light of day. Saabs brief marriage to Subaru, the one which nearly produced the 9-6X, actually has a positive residual value. While naysayers would have agreed that the last thing Saab needed was a U.S.-built minivan-like SUV, the partnership with Subaru could leave some of Subarus all-wheel drive technology in Saabs hands. Perhaps its sounding a little bit out of character to suggest an all-wheel drive Saab, given the brands decision to stick with front-wheel drive, but it will be useful should the Swedish automaker ever decide to reach or pursue more than 300-horsepower or contribute man-power in engineering a sport ute based off of anything other than a body-on-frame GM truck.
A second model, perhaps called the 9-1 or 9-2 would be Saabs entry into the compact hatchback market, and would act as the successor to the Impreza-based 9-2X. This has long been suggested by enthusiasts, and frankly would be a very practical and financially conscious one as well. This vehicle involves reworking the European Opel Astra hatchback and its components, including a redesign to fit into Saabs model lineup. Despite its humble name, the Astra is highly praised in Europe and abroad, and with proper tweaking of engines and suspension components could easily compete against the likes of the Audi A3 Sportback and Mercedes-Benz B-Class. Ford pulled a similar trick with the Mazda3, Volvo S40/V50 and European Ford Focus; why cant it work here?
If all goes well, a third, and perhaps final vehicle could be instituted, not so much a money maker but more of an enjoyable sports car. When the Kappa lightweight RWD sports car platform was still in its concept car form, GM produced many different prototypes for its brands, from Vauxhall/Opel to Pontiac, Chevrolet and Saturn. A production version for Saab could eventually arise from the Pontiac Solstice and Saturn Sky duo, slotting into the range as a modern day Sonnet. The upcoming supercharged version of the Solstice and Sky could also offer an "Aero" model to Saab. This sounds like just the vehicle Saab needs to stand out as a premium player. Nevertheless, odds of this one appearing anytime soon are slim.
So there you have it: three potential vehicles, all of which could actually help Saab turn a profit for the first time in more than a decade, while attracting new buyers to the brand, something which it so desperately needs. Yet the pragmatist in all of us says that its far easier to write about vehicles than it is to actually turn them from the thought process to reality. I must admit; perhaps my plan is over-simplified, and our sources are being too optimistic in believing that the General would spend any additional money over and above the bare minimum it is already investing to keep Saab alive, and foolhardy to think that such vehicles would ever hit the production line by 2009. On the other hand, the door to recovery is wide open, should management wake up and seize the moment.
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