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Re: Polls
Posted by PT (more from PT) on Wed, 21 Nov 2012 18:33:45
In Reply to: Polls, No Snaab, Wed, 21 Nov 2012 09:39:17
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Conducting polls is an art and a science. You try to get a realistic sample, and that's based on who's voted historically. Then there's the art, and you have to figure out who's GOING to vote this time. I think the polls that were off fell down in their assessment of who would vote. As Scott and Noel mentioned, Silver pretty much nailed it this time. There were other polls and models that were way off. Heck, the "Redskins Rule" was even broken this time. It was a really tough one to predict. ;) There is also a certain element of the media publishing polls that will maintain interest in the process and keep people watching by exhibiting uncertainty. 2008 is an example of this; both campaigns knew from their polling data that Obama was 99% certain to win, but the media kept reporting it as being more open than it really was; there isn't much interest in watching a foregone conclusion.
posted by 71.184.199...
Posts in this Thread:
- Polls, No Snaab, Wed, 21 Nov 2012 09:39:17
- Polls are only as good as the samples, Noel, Thu, 22 Nov 2012 07:08:41
- Re: Polls, PT, Wed, 21 Nov 2012 18:33:45 <-- Viewing This Message
- Abivalent Candidates, Ambivalent Voters, Tim, Wed, 21 Nov 2012 12:41:15
- Re: Polls, Dean, Wed, 21 Nov 2012 10:47:00
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