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Sure, there can be bad computer models
Posted by Noel [Email] (more from Noel) on Mon, 25 Feb 2008 07:24:25
In Reply to: Hard science v/s computer modeling..., dSPG89, Sun, 24 Feb 2008 16:51:33
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and what you get is all based on what you put in. GIGO is as true as ever. But your example is not representative of how science is done.
Science works by having theories, ideas and the data on which they are based challenged, reviewed and then modified as more knowledge is gained. When you see similar data from multiple sources and in the research of many different people the likelihood of erroneous conclusions and predictions is much less likely. It doesn't mean anyone has to like the answers to the questions being asked.
Climate change may or may not happen at the rates or manners predicted. And some parts may happen very quickly while others take longer or not even occur. What makes it difficult is that even the best earth scientists don't have a complete understanding of all the possible interactions and potential outcomes of a warmer planet. Models only go so far, and as you note, are only as good as the data on which they are based. What most of them do is look at many factors in combination, gather the best data possible, and try to see the different ways those factors can interact.
It's easy to politicize this stuff or criticize the people with the message, but it seems clear that things are happening that could result in substantive changes in many aspects of life on earth. Previous major shifts in climate had less of an impact on humans simply because there were far less of us and we weren't dependent on a massive, global infrastructure for so many critical needs such as food, fuel, etc. This puts all of this in uncharted territory, where the best thing to do is figure out what is going on and what can be done about it.
Posts in this Thread:
- "Talk About a Crock"…what Bob says about what Bob said, JohnA
, Sat, 23 Feb 2008 08:05:50- I agree with him - global warning is a crock, dcjayhawk, Sat, 23 Feb 2008 15:53:54
- Re: I agree with him - global warning is a crock, ursaw, Tue, 26 Feb 2008 19:41:01
- Re: I agree with him - global warning is a crock, SeattleSaab
, Mon, 25 Feb 2008 21:03:24 - I DISAGREE!, Mike in Anchorage, Sun, 24 Feb 2008 10:28:15
- I disagree..., Caarma
, Sun, 24 Feb 2008 07:56:02 - a Pentagon scenario, JohnA
, Sun, 24 Feb 2008 06:14:46 - Re: I agree with him - global warning is a crock, HansB, Sat, 23 Feb 2008 20:40:23
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