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Posted by ursaw (more from ursaw) on Tue, 10 Jun 2008 20:29:02 Share Post by Email
In Reply to: What are your 10 year predictions on oil/cars/society?, Caarma [Profile/Gallery] , Tue, 10 Jun 2008 06:42:19
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I haven't a clue and I do doubt that. However, gas was actually more expensive when I started driving than it was a decade later and for that matter most of the duration during which I have been driving (real price and inflation adjusted).

This lead me to do a search and see if I could find a comparison over the years. The interesting thing about the following link is how relatively consistent prices have been when adjusted for inflation over the last 30 years. We are basically just back to were we were in late 70s/early 80s.

OK from that why not a couple predictions. What happened the last time we were at that level? Prediction 1: We will see a degree of downsizing. Some increased focus on economy. Some increased interest in alternative energy and lifestyles. That seems to be happening already; OK maybe that makes it an observation no a prediction. Of course the future won't necessarily resemble the past and if that is as far as we get not very promising. Besides everyone turned around and gas sucking rolling containers dominated the road not long after that; people were driving further than ever; commuting farther; living in bigger houses than ever before; with more energy dependent lifestyles than ever. Thing is this time around it isn't just us. This time around you have a rapidly developing China with 1,321,851,888 people and India with 1,129,866,154 people and they want theirs (U.S. BTW is 301,139,947).

I don't know what the future holds but the challenge seems simple enough--Too much! Too much consumption; too much waste; too much excess; too much greed; too much demand. Then there is the too little side of the coin.

I don't know what the ultimate carrying capacity of the earth really is but if we want to continue to live as we do or even perhaps as we reasonably and responsibly might want too live based on our place in the world I think we are beyond it already. Based on that, last prediction: there will be a population "crash". Well unless there isn't; but as with all of this that pretty much goes without saying.

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I am getting a post denied due to pam message when trying to post. I'm guessing it is the link so here it is in another format:

W-cubed dot randomuseless dot info slash gasprice slash gasprice dot html

posted by 75.100.8...


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