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Here's what he's saying (and as an avid reader of Autoextremist.com, I'm drawing on the pretty consistent themes he and his magazine put forth every week)
1. Saab is trying to introduce a bevy of new models in the next few years, including an SUV (right at the point where SUV sales are, at best, plateauing).
2. GM is pretty bad at new vehicle introductions and is usually only average at vehicle execution (i.e., getting it right the first time). GM is also beset with MBA types who aren't car nuts prattling on about "branding" rather than on creating good product. And I've read lots of crap from GM types about resetting Saab's "brand image".
3. Saab has been struggling of late, with lots of their sales coming from steep discount lease deals. Also, Saab is still a small and not terribly flexible car company (we are still driving 9-3's built on a 1980's vintage car platform, and even though the 9-3 was an improvement over the NG900, it is still the same basic 8 year old design)
4. Saab's market -- the $26K-$40K near-luxury/luxury car market is packed full of European competitors, let alone offerings from Japan and US. Audi, VW, Mercedes, Volvo, and BMW all have great-selling models in that price range; Honda, Lexus, Acura, Toyota, Infiniti, Nissan, and Subaru add dozens more. Given Saab's small size, missteps in this market will be catastrophic.
5. DeLorenzo thinks GM/Saab is going to have a very hard time accomplishing the ambitious goals it has set for itself -- expanding and mainstreaming the product line to increase sales in a hotly competitive market niche, with a historically mediocre GM support structure.
I think he's right. Saab faces a big challenge if it wants to execute on its ambitious plan. Obviously, you can't real rewards if you don't take the risks, but the next three or four years will determine whether Saab will continue to exist.
On the plus side, you have the ingenuity of Saab's engineering staff and their historically good ability to create and execute interesting, innovative solutions to problems (from turbos for power-with-fuel-efficiency, to seat fans and cooled gloveboxes (which, if you'll notice, are quickly becoming standard features or options on Saab competitors), to the Trionic system to the SVC).
We'll know when the NG9-3 comes out whether Saab is getting it right. That's their core, bread-and-butter model, and if it gets botched, you can kiss Saab goodbye.
posted by 208.200.18...
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